We live by information, not by sight... The truth is generally seen, rarely heard; seldom she comes in elemental purity, especially from afar; there is always some admixture of the moods of those through whom she has passed... receive her with caution from him that praises, with more caution from him that blames.
Baltasar Gracián, 1647 (tr. Joseph Jacobs, 1892)
Almost nothing you act on was witnessed by you. The market is hot, the boss is unhappy, the school is excellent, that colleague is difficult: all of it arrived through carriers, and every carrier added something of themselves in transit. The rule is not cynicism but arithmetic: before weighing the news, weigh the messenger. What does this person gain if I believe them? Praise from an interested party is advertising; blame from a rival is ammunition; even honest carriers tint the story with their moods. The discipline is triangulation: for anything that matters, a second source with different interests, and a look at whatever raw material exists.
Practice
- Attach a source note to important information: who told me, and what do they want? The note changes how much the information weighs.
- Triangulate before acting: one more source, differently interested, turns rumour into something closer to a reading.
- Go one step toward the raw material when stakes are high: the document itself, the actual numbers, the person involved rather than their describer.
Use this when
- Use this on all praise and blame of absent people; you are hearing the carrier's relationship with them, not them.
- Use it hardest on urgent market whispers; urgency is how interested information disables checking.
Ignore this when
- Don't slide into trusting no one; the goal is calibrated belief, not paralysis. Track who has proven accurate and pay them more trust.
- Don't exempt pleasant news; the reports that flatter your hopes need the discount most.
A picture of it
The broker calls twice in one week: prices in that colony are about to jump, two buyers are already circling the same plot, a decision is needed by Friday. The buyer thanks him, then spends one Saturday doing what the urgency was designed to prevent: tea with two residents, a look at the registry's actual recent transactions, a call to a broker from a different market. The jump exists mainly in the first broker's commission. The plot is still available in August, at a price the panic version of him would never have got.
News is never neutral by the time it reaches you. Check the wind it travelled on.